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Trimming the tree is a favorite holiday activity for many of us. Some families start decking the halls as soon as the Thanksgiving turkey leftovers are in the fridge. This means we’re hitting prime time for holiday decor and Christmas tree shopping. Whether you’re a real tree fanatic or a faux tree fan, chances are you’re either strapping a festive fir to the roof of your car or hauling the big box out of the basement soon if you haven’t already.

In 2021 fresh Christmas tree lovers across the U.S. faced disappointment with a Christmas tree shortage just before the holidays. But will that be the case again this year? Many tree sellers are saying no way, but some still face fewer trees and increased prices from tree farms. A family-favorite tree seller just outside of Boise, Idaho, told us that he had 100 trees fewer than last year. He was unable to find more, even after venturing to neighboring states. He also told us that several of his regular customers made the switch to artificial trees after 2021’s shortage, so he’s seeing fewer of his regulars as well. What does this mean for us? Keep reading to find out everything we know about Christmas tree sales in 2022.

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Will there be a Christmas tree shortage in 2022?

Fresh Christmas trees at a Fred Meyer store with a sign

Should we worry about a tree shortage this year? For most of us, not really. While tree sellers in certain areas have fewer trees to stock their lot, most tree sellers and farmers are optimistic that there will be plenty to go around. The shortage in 2021 is largely attributed to an increase in demand for real trees while we were all still feeling the effects of a lonely 2020 holiday and the COVID-19 pandemic. The increased interest in buying real trees seems here to stay, but many tree farms have recovered and have plenty of trees to harvest for the 2022 holiday season.

Where you may run into shortages is on specific types of trees. While there will be enough trees to go around, you may not get the exact Christmas tree variety you came for. So if you have your heart set on a Frasier fir, it’s in your best interest to be flexible and consider a Douglas fir or Scotch pine so that you don’t leave the lot empty handed.

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Comparing real tree prices to artificial tree prices:

A person looking at artificial Christmas trees in a store

While we may not face the same shortages we saw in 2021, we will likely still see the effects of inflation reflected in the higher prices. The average cost of a Christmas tree in 2020 and 2021 was around $81, according to Consumer Reports. Those same trees will likely cost closer to $100 this year. A majority (71%) of Christmas tree farmers expect prices to increase 5% to 15% on average, with some (11%) even predicting a 20% increase in costs.

For artificial tree fans, you may actually see a dip in prices this year. We saw some amazing Black Friday prices on artificial Christmas trees — with some pre-lit trees as low as $50 — and this could be due to an overstock of 2021 trees that arrived at stores after Christmas due to supply chain and shipping delays. Artificial trees are still, on average, more expensive than their fresh counterparts, but many families prefer having holiday stability each year knowing their holiday home centerpiece is safely stored in their house.

Is There a Christmas Tree Shortage This Year?