At Krazy Coupon Lady, tracking prices is literally our job. We've been monitoring price drops and spikes for years (that's how we find you all these great deals). But with grocery costs hitting everyone's wallets harder lately — and some essentials like coffee jumping 24% at certain stores — we realized it was time to pull back the curtain and share our price intelligence with you.
Our team launched the KCL Price Tracker, which follows over 100 grocery items weekly across major retailers. We'll be sharing these insights regularly, not just in articles like this one, but also in videos and social posts, to keep you updated on what's happening with prices in real time.
For this first report, we're focusing on the 10 essentials that show up in almost every shopping cart. After monitoring prices at Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club, we discovered some shocking price jumps and identified clear price winners for every essential on your list. (And, yes, that includes your go-to pantry staples too.)
For more smart shopping tips and savings hacks, text HACKS to 57299.
Ready to see what we found? Let's dive into the data.
The 10 Grocery Essentials We're Tracking
We focused on items that most shoppers buy regularly:
Canned Tuna (canned chunk light in water or oil)
Cereal (name brand, family-size box)
Cheese (shredded, block, and processed)
Chicken (boneless skinless breasts per pound)
Coffee Grounds (name brand and store brand in standard sizes)
Eggs (large, Grade A dozen)
Ground Beef (80% lean / 20% fat, per pound)
Milk (2%, per gallon)
Olive Oil (extra virgin, name brand, and store brand)
Sandwich Bread (name-brand loaf, white and whole wheat)
KCL Price Tracker: The Essentials Price Summary
We've been tracking prices on 10 grocery essentials since the start of the year — here's what we found for average price changes, listed from largest price increase to smallest.
Bookmark This Page: We'll be updating these insights regularly as prices shift. And follow us on TikTok and Instagram (@thekrazycouponlady) for real-time price alerts and breaking deals as they happen.
How We Track These Prices
We take our price tracking seriously. Here's a glimpse into how we're gathering the data:
Store Variety: Our team tracks prices at four major retailers and warehouse clubs (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club).
Regular Updates: Prices are logged weekly and then analyzed to identify trends and fluctuations.
Standard Sizes: We track the same package sizes every time (such as a dozen eggs or a gallon of milk) to keep things consistent.
No Sale Prices: These are regular shelf prices, not temporary markdowns or coupon deals (although we also note those).
The goal isn't just to see what's expensive — it's to help you learn to spot the true deals when they pop up. For example, when you know the average price of milk has been $3.58 per gallon, that $2.99 sale price suddenly makes a lot more sense.
What's Really Happening to Grocery Prices
Coffee Grounds
Average Price Change: Up 9% (but some retailers are much higher)
Biggest Increase: Costco, up 27% (Kirkland Signature Dark Roast)
Where It's Cheapest Now: Costco, at $0.35 per ounce (Folgers)
Price to Look For: $0.47 per ounce or less
Coffee is where we're seeing some of the most dramatic price swings in our KCL Price Tracker. This category is all over the map right now. Supply chain issues are hitting hard, and many retailers are quietly raising prices on both store-brand and name-brand coffee.
Here's one price jump that got our attention: Costco's own Kirkland Signature Dark Roast has jumped 27% since January (across four separate price hikes). Sam's Club's Maxwell House spiked 24% in early May, as did Costco's Maxwell House later in June. And both Sam's Club and Walmart saw their Folgers prices jump 17% - 20% since earlier this year.
With the average sitting at $0.47 per ounce, aim for that price or lower when you're stocking up on coffee grounds. Our advice? Buy bulk sizes for better per-ounce pricing, and stock up when you can — coffee prices aren't settling down anytime soon.
Action Item: Stock up at Costco for $0.35 per ounce — prices are unstable and rising.
Ground Beef
Average Price Change: Up 5%
Biggest Increase: Walmart, up 6% ($6.73 per pound)
Where It's Cheapest Now: Sam's Club ($4.98 per pound)
Price to Look For: $6 per pound or less
Ground beef is feeling a slight squeeze across the board. Stores first raised prices between April and May, with increases ranging from 3% - 5%. According to the USDA's Food Price Outlook, beef prices are predicted to increase by 6.6% this year "due to tight supplies and continued consumer demand."
Sam's Club takes the lead at $4.98 per pound, with Costco as runner-up at $4.99 per pound. Here's what's interesting: Costco and Sam's Club don't even sell that standard 80% lean/20% fat mix that Target and Walmart carry — you're actually getting leaner meat for less money at the warehouse clubs. With our tracked average sitting at $6 per pound, anything under that is a solid deal.
If you live near an Aldi, they're beating everyone at $4.69 per pound — even after an 18% price jump this year.
Action Item: Buy only what you need; try Aldi at $4.69 per pound if available.
Canned Tuna
Average Price Change: Up 2%
Retailer With Biggest Increase: Sam's Club, up 10% (StarKist Chunk Light Tuna in Water)
Where It's Cheapest Now: Costco, Sam's Club, or Walmart, all at $0.18 per ounce
Price to Look For: $0.22 per ounce or less
Starting in late April — about a month after those aluminum tariffs hit the news — we started seeing the first price bumps on canned tuna. The good news? Costco and Walmart have kept their tuna prices rock-solid over the past few months. The not-so-good news? Target's up 7% - 8% and Sam's Club jumped a full 10%.
Right now, you're looking at around $0.22 per ounce on average for canned chunk light tuna. Our advice? Anything under that average is worth grabbing (and is easiest to do if you buy in bulk or stick with store brands).
Action Item: Buy under $0.22 per ounce; stick with Costco, Walmart, or store brands.
Chicken Breast
Average Price Change: Up 1%
Where It's Cheapest Now: Walmart, at $2.67 per pound
Surprising Find: Walmart beats Sam's Club by $0.10 per pound
Price to Look For: $3.48 per pound or less
Chicken has been one of our most stable proteins. We've tracked nearly zero price fluctuations except for one tiny 3% bump at Sam's Club back in March and a 3% bump at Walmart in June. That's it.
Walmart's still leading at $2.67 per pound, surprisingly beating Sam's Club by $0.10. With the average sitting at $3.48 per pound across all retailers we track, any price you see under that is worth grabbing.
Action Item: Buy 4-pound or larger bulk trays at Walmart for $2.67 per pound and freeze extras.
KCL TIP: Buy 4-pound or larger bulk trays for lower per-pound pricing (freeze any extras), and check for markdowns on meat near its sell-by date for 30% - 40% savings.
Sandwich Bread
Average Price Change: Holding steady
Where It's Cheapest Now: Walmart, at $1.42 for white or $1.97 for whole wheat
Price to Look For: $0.14 per ounce or less (or $2.80 for a 20-ounce loaf)
Sandwich bread is the most stable, consistent category of all the essentials we track. We haven't seen a single price fluctuation on regular prices. The only movement? An occasional Rollback sale price at Walmart.
Here's the bottom line: Bread prices aren't worth stressing over right now. Walmart's holding at $1.42 for Great Value white bread, which is the best deal around. Plus, they've got a Rollback price on Wonder Bread that matches Costco's price per ounce for a Wonder Bread 2-pack.
Action Item: Don't overthink it — Walmart wins at $1.42 for white bread.
KCL TIP: If you prefer premium brands, keep an eye out for bread coupons on pricier options like Dave's Killer Bread and Nature's Own — that's usually where the manufacturer discounts show up.
Cereal
Average Price Change: Holding steady
Where It's Cheapest Now: Sam's Club, at $0.14 per ounce (Kellogg's Frosted Flakes)
Runner-Up: Costco, at $0.17 per ounce (General Mills Cheerios)
Price to Look For: $0.22 per ounce or less
Cereal is giving us some rare good news in our KCL Price Tracker — prices have stayed put for now, and the USDA is predicting cereal prices will drop this year. We haven't seen regular prices dip yet, but here's the thing: Cereal coupons (worth $0.50 - $2) and weekly sales are fairly easy to come by, which means you don't have to pay regular prices if you time it right.
According to our price tracker, the average price of cereal we're seeing right now is about $0.22 per ounce, but Sam's Club is leading the pack at $0.14 per ounce for Frosted Flakes, with Costco right behind them at $0.17 per ounce for a bulk pack of Cheerios.
Action Item: Stack coupons with sales; compare cost per ounce, not box price.
KCL TIP: Always compare cost per ounce when shopping for cereal since box sizes can vary greatly. To do this yourself, just take the total cost of the box divided by the total ounces of cereal.
Cheese
Average Price Change: Down 2%
Retailer With Biggest Increase: Walmart, up 14% (Great Value Shredded Mozzarella)
Where It's Cheapest Now: Costco, at $0.17 per ounce (Kirkland Shredded Mozzarella)
Runner-Up: Sam's Club, at $0.17 per ounce (Member's Mark Block Cheddar)
Price to Look For: $0.27 per ounce or less
Cheese prices have stayed relatively stable, with some retailers even dropping prices. For example, we've tracked a 16% decrease in price for Sam's Club shredded cheddar, and a 13% decrease for Target's Good & Gather cheddar. Those tariff changes everyone's been worried about? Doesn't appear to have an impact on cheese so far.
Bulk retailers are your clear winners at $0.17 - $0.19 per ounce, while regular retailers run $0.25 - $0.28 per ounce for store brands. Here's what caught our eye, though: Walmart quietly inflated their Great Value Mozzarella price by 14% in mid-April, then marketed their old price as a Rollback.
Action Item: Shop warehouse clubs ($0.17 - $0.19 / oz) vs. regular stores ($0.25 - $0.40 / oz) if you can.
Olive Oil
Average Price Change: Down 4%
Where It's Cheapest: Costco, at $0.22 per ounce
Runner-Up: Sam's Club, at $0.23 per ounce
Price to Look For: $0.42 per ounce or less
Olive oil is trending in your favor. Prices are down 4% on average for extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), with some solid price drops at major retailers. Target led the way with their Bertolli brand falling 13% in early May and their Good & Gather brand dropping 12% in late April. Even Walmart's Pompeian EVOO has dipped 3% since April.
But Costco takes the lead with the best value at $0.22 per ounce for their 100% Spanish EVOO, with Sam's Club close behind at $0.23 per ounce. With our tracked average around $0.42 per ounce, that's your benchmark for a good deal. Store brands consistently offer better value per ounce, and keep in mind that extra virgin olive oil will always cost more than non-virgin olive oil, which is typically a blend from different countries.
Action Item: Stock up at warehouse clubs for $0.22 - $0.23 per ounce; prices are down 4%.
Milk (2%)
Average Price Change: Down 5%
Biggest Increase: Walmart, up 1% (Great Value Reduced Fat Milk)
Where It's Cheapest Now: Walmart, around $3.08 per gallon
Price to Look For: $3.12 per gallon or less
Milk prices are all over the place right now — while the average change is down slightly, individual retailers tend to move in opposite directions. Costco dropped their prices 12% starting in early May, but then raised them by 14% in mid-June. Sam's Club had a 3% decrease for Member's Mark milk in late May. But Target? They bumped their Good & Gather milk up 13% in early June, then lowered it by 15% in recent weeks.
Still, Walmart's leading at $3.08 per gallon, with Costco right behind at $3.17 per gallon. Our tracked average sits around $3.12 per gallon, and prices stay pretty consistent whether you're buying whole milk or 2%. The USDA predicts milk prices will decrease in 2025 "due to increases in the dairy herd and higher production." They're forecasting drops as steep as 8.3% this year.
Action Item: Buy at Walmart for around $3.08 per gallon; prices are predicted to drop further.
Eggs
Average Price Change: Down 39%
Where They're Cheapest Now: Costco, as low as $0.22 per egg (18-count for $3.99)
Runner-Up: Target, at $0.23 per egg ($2.79 per dozen)
Price to Look For: $3.24 per dozen or less
Eggs have dropped a massive 39% on average since January, with some stores like Target and Walmart seeing drops over 50%. We covered these weekly price swings in our Egg Report on KCL's TikTok channel because, honestly, it's been wild to watch. Follow us there (@thekrazycouponlady) and on Instagram for instant alerts when prices drop like this.
Costco's your current winner with 18-count cartons at $3.99 at some locations (just $0.22 per egg), while Target's close behind at $2.79 per dozen. Our tracked average is sitting around $3.24 per dozen, which is a bit lower than the USDA's national average of $3.60. The usual rules apply: Store brands consistently beat premium options like Eggland's Best, and warehouse clubs give you better value when buying larger quantities.
Action Item: Stock up now at Costco for $0.22 per egg or at Target for $0.23 per egg.
KCL TIP: Aldi's prices are holding pretty steady at $2.72 per dozen — another solid $0.23 per egg option.
Your KCL Shopping Game Plan
Now that you've seen our price intel, here's how to turn this data into real grocery savings:
Use our price benchmarks as your cheat sheet.
We've done the math so you don't have to. Milk under $3.12 per gallon or eggs under $3.24 per dozen? That's your signal to stock up. Coffee over $0.47 per ounce? Skip it and wait for a better deal.
Always do the per-unit math.
This is KCL Shopping 101: Compare cost per ounce or per pound, not just the sticker price. It's especially crucial for cereal (those box sizes are all over the place) and coffee (where bulk buying pays off big). Just divide total price by total ounces — we promise the math is worth it.
Hit these store-specific sweet spots:
Walmart: Your go-to for chicken ($2.67/lb) and milk ($3.14/gal).
Costco/Sam's Club: Where we're finding the best deals on coffee ($0.29/oz), cheese ($0.17 - $0.19/oz), and olive oil ($0.22 - $0.23/oz).
Target: Crushing it on eggs at $2.99/dozen.
Aldi: If you've got one nearby, they're beating everyone on ground beef at $4.69/lb.
KCL Pro Tips for Stocking Up
Grab those 4-pound or larger chicken bulk trays and freeze what you won't use immediately. Never pay full price for cereal. Stack those $0.50 - $2 coupons with weekly sales. And always check for meat markdowns near sell-by dates for 30% - 40% off.
Here's what we've learned after years of tracking prices: Shop with data, not emotion. When you know what things actually cost, those Rollback and sale stickers become a lot less convincing — and your grocery budget becomes way more predictable.
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