At Krazy Coupon Lady, tracking prices is literally our job. We've been monitoring price drops and spikes for years (that's how we find you all these great deals). But with grocery costs hitting everyone's wallets harder lately — and some essentials like ground coffee jumping as much as 49% at certain stores — we realized it was time to pull back the curtain and share our price intelligence with you.
Our team launched the KCL Price Tracker, which follows over 100 grocery items weekly across major retailers. We'll be sharing these insights regularly, not just in articles like this one, but also in videos and social posts, to keep you updated on what's happening with prices in real time.
For this report, we're focusing on the 10 grocery essentials that show up in almost every shopping cart. After monitoring prices at Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club, we discovered some shocking price jumps and identified clear price winners for every essential on your list. (And, yes, that includes your go-to pantry staples too.)
For more smart shopping tips and savings hacks, text HACKS to 57299 .
The 10 Grocery Essentials We're Tracking
We focused on items that most shoppers buy regularly:
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Canned Tuna (canned chunk light in water or oil)
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Cereal (name brand, family-size box)
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Cheese (shredded, block, and processed)
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Chicken (boneless skinless breasts per pound)
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Coffee Grounds (name brand and store brand in standard sizes)
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Eggs (large, Grade A dozen)
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Ground Beef (80% lean / 20% fat, per pound)
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Milk (2%, per gallon)
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Olive Oil (extra virgin, name brand, and store brand)
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Sandwich Bread (name-brand loaf, white and whole wheat)
KCL Price Tracker: The Essentials Price Summary
We've been tracking prices on 10 grocery essentials since the start of the year — here's what we found for average price changes, listed from largest price increase to smallest. (Click on the graphic below — or here — to expand.)
Bookmark This Page : We'll be updating these insights regularly as prices shift. And follow us on TikTok and Instagram (@thekrazycouponlady) for real-time price alerts and breaking deals as they happen.
How We Track These Prices
We take our price tracking seriously. Here's a glimpse into how we're gathering the data:
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Store Variety : Our team tracks prices at four major retailers and warehouse clubs (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club).
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Regular Updates : Prices are logged weekly and then analyzed to identify trends and fluctuations.
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Standard Sizes : We track the same package sizes every time (such as a dozen eggs or a gallon of milk) to keep things consistent.
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No Sale Prices : These are regular shelf prices, not temporary markdowns or coupon deals (although we also note those).
The goal isn't just to see what's expensive — it's to help you learn to spot the true deals when they pop up. For example, when you know the average price of milk has been $3.50 per gallon, that $2.99 sale price suddenly makes a lot more sense.
What's Really Happening to Grocery Prices
Coffee Grounds: Up 36% since April, and stable in the last week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Biggest Increase: Sam's Club, up 49% (Maxwell House)
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Where It's Cheapest Now: Costco, at $0.42 per ounce (Maxwell House)
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Average Price to Look For: $0.53 per ounce or less
Coffee is where we're seeing some of the most dramatic price swings in our KCL Price Tracker. This category is still all over the map. Supply chain issues are hitting hard, and many retailers are quietly raising prices on both store-brand and name-brand coffee.
Here's one recent price jump that got our attention: Sam's Club raised the price on their Maxwell House grounds by 49% since April. And Target raised the price on their Folgers ground coffee by 32%.
With the average sitting at $0.53 per ounce, aim for that price or lower when you're stocking up on coffee grounds. Our advice? Buy bulk sizes for better per-ounce pricing, and stock up when you can — coffee prices aren't settling down anytime soon.
Action Item: Stock up at Costco for as low as $0.42 per ounce — prices are unstable and rising.
Ground Beef: Up 10% since April, and stable in the last week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Biggest Increase: Aldi, up 25% per pound
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Where It's Cheapest Now: Aldi ($4.99 per pound)
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Price to Look For: $6.29 per pound or less
Ground beef is feeling a slight squeeze across the board, even at warehouse clubs. Stores first raised prices between April and May, with increases ranging from 3% - 5%. And as of August 2025, Sam's Club and Costco raised their prices by 6% - 10%, respectively. According to the USDA's September Food Price Outlook, beef prices are predicted to increase by 11.6% this year.
Aldi currently takes the lead at $4.99 per pound, with Costco as runner-up at $5.49 per pound . Here's what's interesting: Costco and Sam's Club don't even sell that standard 80% lean/20% fat mix that Target and Walmart carry — you're actually getting leaner meat for less money at the warehouse clubs. With our tracked average sitting at $6.29 per pound, anything under that is a solid deal.
Action Item: Buy only what you need; try Aldi at $4.99 per pound if available.
Chicken Breast: Up 10% since April, and stable this week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Where It's Cheapest Now: Walmart, at $2.67 per pound
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Surprising Find: Walmart still beats Sam's Club by $0.10 per pound
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Price to Look For: $3.51 per pound or less
Chicken has been one of our most stable proteins. We've tracked nearly zero price fluctuations except for one tiny 3% bump at Walmart in June and a 5% increase at Target in September. That's it.
Walmart's still leading at $2.67 per pound, surprisingly beating Sam's Club by $0.10. With the average sitting at $3.51 per pound across all retailers we track, any price you see under that is worth grabbing.
Action Item: Buy 4-pound or larger bulk trays at Walmart for $2.67 per pound and freeze extras.
KCL TIP: Check for markdowns on meat near its sell-by date for 30% - 40% savings.
Canned Tuna: Same price as in April, and stable in the last week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Retailer With Biggest Increase: Sam's Club, up 10% (StarKist Chunk Light Tuna in Water)
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Where It's Cheapest Now: Sam's Club, on sale for $0.17 per ounce
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Price to Look For: $0.21 per ounce or less
Starting in late April — about a month after those aluminum and steel tariffs hit the news — we started seeing the first price bumps on canned tuna. The good news? Costco has kept their tuna prices pretty much rock-solid over the past few months. The not-so-good news? Target's up 8%, Walmart's up 9% and Sam's Club jumped a full 10%.
Right now, you're looking at around $0.21 per ounce on average for canned chunk light tuna. Our advice? Anything under that average is worth grabbing (and is easiest to do if you buy in bulk or stick with store brands).
Action Item: Buy under $0.21 per ounce; stick with Costco, Sam's Club, or store brands.
Sandwich Bread: Down 7% since April, and stable in the last week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Where It's Cheapest Now: Walmart, at $1.42 for white or $1.97 for whole wheat
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Price to Look For: $0.14 per ounce or less (around $2.80 for a 20-ounce loaf)
Sandwich bread is the most stable, consistent category of all the essentials we track. We haven't seen a single price fluctuation on regular prices. The only movement? An occasional Rollback sale price at Walmart.
Here's the bottom line: Bread prices aren't worth stressing over right now. Walmart's holding at $1.42 for Great Value white bread, which is pretty much the best deal around. If you go through a lot of bread and prefer name brand, stock up at Costco, where their Wonder Bread 2-pack comes out to $0.12 per ounce (around $2.50 per loaf).
Action Item: Don't overthink it — Walmart wins at $1.42 for white bread.
KCL TIP: If you prefer premium brands, keep an eye out for bread coupons on pricier options like Dave's Killer Bread and Nature's Own — that's usually where the manufacturer discounts show up.
Cereal: Down 4% since April, and stable in the last week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Where It's Cheapest Now: Sam's Club, $0.14 per ounce (Frosted Flakes)
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Price to Look For: $0.22 per ounce or less
Cereal is giving us some rare good news in our KCL Price Tracker — prices have stayed put for now. We haven't seen regular prices dip too much yet, but here's the thing: Cereal coupons (worth $0.50 - $2) and weekly sales are fairly easy to come by, which means you don't have to pay regular prices if you time it right.
According to our price tracker, the average price of cereal we're seeing right now is about $0.22 per ounce, but Sam's Club is leading the pack at $0.14 - $0.16 per ounce for Frosted Flakes and Honey Bunches of Oats .
Action Item: Stack coupons with sales; compare cost per ounce, not box price.
KCL TIP: Always compare cost per ounce when shopping for cereal since box sizes can vary greatly. To do this yourself, just take the total cost of the box divided by the total ounces of cereal.
Milk (Reduced Fat): Down 3% since April, and stable in the last week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Biggest Increase: Sam's Club, up 4% (Member's Mark)
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Where It's Cheapest Now: Walmart, around $2.86 per gallon (Great Value)
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Price to Look For: $3.32 per gallon or less
Milk prices are a little up and down right now, but only by a few cents. While the average price of milk is down slightly, individual retailers tend to move in opposite directions.
Walmart's leading at $2.86 per gallon , with Target right behind at $2.89 per gallon . Our tracked average sits at $3.32 per gallon, and prices stay pretty consistent whether you're buying whole milk or reduced fat. As of September, the USDA predicts milk prices will decrease by 1.2 percent in 2025.
Action Item: Buy at Walmart for as low as $2.86 per gallon; prices are predicted to decrease slightly.
Cheese: Up 8% since April, and stable in the last week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Where It's Cheapest Now: Sam's Club, at $0.17 per ounce (Member's Mark Block Cheddar)
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Runner-Up: Costco, at $0.17 per ounce (Kirkland Shredded Mozzarella)
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Price to Look For: $0.26 per ounce or less
Cheese prices have stayed relatively stable, with some retailers even dropping prices on store-brand cheese. For example, we've tracked a 16% decrease in price for Sam's Club shredded cheddar, a 13% decrease for Target's block cheddar, and a 12% decrease for Walmart's shredded cheddar. Those tariff changes everyone's been worried about? Doesn't appear to have an impact on cheese so far.
Bulk retailers are your clear winners at $0.17 - $0.22 per ounce, while regular retailers run $0.25 - $0.40 per ounce. Here's what caught our eye, though: Walmart quietly inflated their Great Value Mozzarella price by 14% in mid-April, then marketed their old price as a Rollback.
Action Item: Shop warehouse clubs ($0.17 - $0.22 / oz) vs. regular stores ($0.25 - $0.40 / oz) if you can.
Olive Oil: Down 17% since April, and down 1% in the last week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Where It's Cheapest: Costco, at $0.22 per ounce
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Runner-Up: Sam's Club, at $0.23 per ounce
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Price to Look For: $0.35 per ounce or less
Olive oil is trending in your favor. Prices are down 17% for extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), with some solid price drops at major retailers. Target led the way with their Good & Gather oil falling 17% since April. We've also tracked drops of 3% - 13% for name brand EVOOs like Bertolli and Pompeian.
But Costco takes the lead with the best value at $0.22 per ounce for their 100% Spanish EVOO, with Sam's Club close behind at $0.23 per ounce. With our tracked average at $0.35 per ounce, that's your benchmark for a good deal. Store brands consistently offer better value per ounce, and keep in mind that extra virgin olive oil will always cost more than non-virgin olive oil, which is typically a blend from different countries.
Action Item: Stock up at warehouse clubs for $0.22 - $0.28 per ounce.
Eggs: Down 33% since April, and down 3% in the last week.
Average unit price across four retailers (Walmart, Target, Costco, and Sam's Club) from April 1 - Oct. 1, 2025, with total percentage change. Source: The Krazy Coupon Lady
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Where They're Cheapest Now: Walmart, as low as $0.19 per egg ($2.34 per dozen)
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Runner-Up: Target, at $0.20 per egg ($2.39 per dozen)
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Price to Look For: $3.24 per dozen or less
Egg prices have dropped a whopping 33% on average since April, with some retailers like Target seeing drops as high as 60% for their store-brand eggs. We covered these price swings in our Egg Report on KCL's TikTok channel because, honestly, it's been wild to watch. Follow us there (@thekrazycouponlady) and on Instagram for instant alerts when prices drop like this.
Walmart's your current winner with a dozen eggs for as low as $2.34, while Target is close behind at $2.39 a dozen. Our tracked average is sitting around $3.24 per dozen, which is still a bit higher than the USDA's national average of $2.87 as of Sept. 26. The usual rules apply: Store brands consistently beat premium options like Eggland's Best, and warehouse clubs give you better value when buying larger quantities.
Action Item: Buy at Walmart for $0.19 per egg or Target for $0.20 per egg.
Your KCL Shopping Game Plan
Now that you've seen our price intel, here's how to turn this data into real grocery savings:
Use our price benchmarks as your cheat sheet.
We've done the math so you don't have to. Milk under $3.32 per gallon or eggs under $3.24 per dozen? That's your signal to stock up. Coffee over $0.53 per ounce? Skip it and wait for a better deal.
Always do the per-unit math.
This is KCL Shopping 101: Compare cost per ounce or per pound, not just the sticker price. It's especially crucial for cereal (those box sizes are all over the place) and coffee (where bulk buying pays off big). Just divide total price by total ounces — we promise the math is worth it.
Hit these store-specific sweet spots:
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Walmart : Your go-to for chicken ($2.67/lb), sandwich bread ($1.42/loaf), and milk ($2.86/gal).
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Costco/Sam's Club : Where we're finding the best deals on cheese ($0.17 - $0.22/oz) and olive oil ($0.22 - $0.28/oz).
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Target : Still crushing it on eggs at $2.39/dozen, just behind Walmart.
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Aldi: If you've got one nearby, they're beating everyone on ground beef at $4.99/lb.
KCL Pro Tips for Stocking Up
Grab those 4-pound or larger chicken bulk trays and freeze what you won't use immediately. Never pay full price for cereal. Stack those $0.50 - $2 coupons with weekly sales. And always check for meat markdowns near sell-by dates for 30% - 40% off.
Here's what we've learned after years of tracking prices: Shop with data, not emotion. When you know what things actually cost, those Rollback and sale stickers become a lot less convincing — and your grocery budget becomes way more predictable.
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